Short term: Enter Castrol above 202.5. Target 212. SL 199. 1 week.
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Short term: Enter Castrol above 202.5. Target 212. SL 199. 1 week.
Enter Polyplex Corp. Share price 515. Target 630. Sl 460. 3 months.
Technically stock will be stronger above 535.
Add Sheemaroo Ent. Share price 525. Target 650. SL 430. 6 months.
Add on dips towards 500 and 480.
Add Redington (India) between 135-140. Share price: 145. Target 170 & 190. 3 months. SL 125.
Fundamentally good stock, corrected in recent market volatility.
Technically, stock can pull back towards 170 is less than 1 month, if it closes above 154.
Stay long on NIFTY, global markets to pull NIFTY above 10650 & 10700.
Above 10720, uptrend is confirmed with strong support at 10600.
As said earlier, market is currently range bound 10250-10620. We are anticipating a break above 10620 in a day or two.
NIFTY consolidating quite longer b/w 10250-10620. Strong support seen at 10k.
On Daily charts, NIFTY is in accumulation zone with SL of 10250. Below 10250, NIFTY may swiftly move towards 10000-10100, at 10000-10100 we see a strong opportunity to buy stocks with greater upside potential in quality stocks. Any strong intraday move on the upside with NIFTY moving more than 1-1.5%, will signal a good start of rally on the upside which can further break the resistance at 10620.
On weekly charts NIFTY is technically trending down, This had happened 15-18 months back in September-October 2016. Since buy signal was identified in NIFTY (@8000) in November-December 2016, NIFTY is almost up 30%. We will be providing information on Buy Signals in NIFTY on weekly charts. Currently Weekly Technical charts have provided Accumulation Signal with SL of 10250.
The above writing are provided as information interpreting Technical Charts of NIFTY on Daily and Weekly charts which helps investors in managing the risk in their portfolio.
Summary:
NIFTY- Weekly chart: Accumulate with SL of 10250, Trending down on Technical Indicators. On further consolidation, Technical Indicators will move into oversold zone and on reversal signal, fresh buying starts with movement in the upside.
NIFTY- Daily Charts: Strong Accumulation zone with SL of 10250. Consolidating near oversold zone.
When will the market fall more?
Since on daily charts, NIFTY is in Strong Accumulation Zone and Technical Indicators suggest that the NIFTY is consolidating near oversold zone, NIFTY has to bounce back towards 10580-10620. If NIFTY fails to cross 10620, with good amount of buyers in the market, it provides a fresh downside risk of another 500 points as the buyers may start selling. That is when the market may dip towards 10000-10100. Other way that market can fall is due to some bad news in the global market and NIFTY breaks 10250 to move towards 10000-10100. Such move is less likely and will provide quick recover in short term where NIFTY will bounce back towards 10400-10450 in quick sessions.
It should be understood that things does not happen too quick and investors are always given a chance to either get into or get out of a stock atleast once.
More over, we are positive on the market in long term run. Kindly keep infusing funds in the market at regular intervals to gain the most of our quality picks.
Investors who have recently entered the market are suffering a bigger loss. It will be a good lesson to all the investors, the lesson learnt will be that market consolidation is always likely, it can be in days, weeks or months. In a long run, Market will always take care of your investment and returns.
Stay invested, Stay informed.
Decent Numbers: Priority Pick (P11). Stock to remain range bound. 3 months.
New Priority call (P-14). Value Pick from Leading sector with 75% upside.
Stock trades at 30% discount to its industry and has posted decent set of numbers. Recent correction in the micro cap has made the stock available at more valuable price with potential upside on 75% in less than 1 year.
Strong Numbers: Priority Pick (P3). Short term & long term target intact.
Returns till date 55%.
We are maintaining our SL and buy range post recent results. Short term upside potential: 30% in 6 months.
Strong result & technical oversold. Ratnamani Metals to retest 52 week high.
Enter stock 900-920. Target 1120. SL 860. 6 months.
If you are holding Spicejet Book profits. Both targets hit.
Reference call:
Update on Spicejet. Stock remains oversold. Reversal confirms above 125.
Results update on Priority Pick (P9). Strong revenues & Lower profits.
Reference call:
[Priority Pick] Strong results & Cheap valuations. This stock can return 200% in 2 years.
Short-term strategies for investing in stocks
When you Place an order with the broker you have to select the option if the trade will be a delivery trade or intra-day trade and the reason is margin. You have to pay lesser margins for intra-day day trades compared to delivery trades due to the time factor and no risk of overnight uncertainties. Day trading has many sub styles like momentum trading where it involves identifying a moving pattern in a stock and investing in that momentum. Another one is called scalpers where raid and repeated high volume trades are executed within seconds or minutes. The main advantage of such type of trading is that there is no risk of overnight uncertainties, you get increased leverage for your trades and you can get profit immaterial of the direction of the market movement.
Example:
| Prev close | Buy | Stop loss | Target | |
| PANACEABIO | 301.75 | 301.89 | 297.56 | 306.1 |
| DLINKINDIA | 129.15 | 129.39 | 126.56 | 132.18 |
| JAICORPLTD | 182 | 182.25 | 178.89 | 185.55 |
| PVR (F&O) | 1460.6 | 1463.06 | 1453.52 | 1471.9 |
| QUESS | 984.25 | 984.39 | 976.56 | 991.75 |
If you want to buy some stock in the market let’s say 1000 shares of company X at Rs 200. You have to pay Rs 200000/- to buy the shares. Now, you may purchase Stock futures by paying 15% margin which comes to Rs 30000/-. So by paying Rs 30000/- you can get exposure to stocks worth Rs 200000/-. Now, we can apply the same logic of futures to cash market, then it becomes margin trading. So you would naturally think why we need margin trading then? There are a few reasons like Stock futures contract are not available for all stocks in the market, time period of a futures contract is limited and some brokers give better interest rates on margin trading than the prevalent rates in the futures market.
CALL OPTION
A Call option give a person the option to buy the options at certain price. So, a person will buy a call option when he thinks that the price will go up. Here if the price of the stock in the market goes up, the buyer will exercise his right to buy at the strike price which will be less than the market price and then sell the stock in the market price and earn profit. But if the price of the stock is less that the strike price, the buyer of the option can let the option expire and can avoid losses. This is the reason for the graph we saw in FIg- 1 has no payoff line in the loss column. On the other hand the seller of the call option has the obligation and not the right so he believes that the underlying stock’s price will drop and the buyer will not exercise the option and he earns the premium amount.
Put Option
Put options gives the person the option to sell at a certain price. So if the person is bearish and thinks that the stock will fall then he will buy a put option. Here if the price of the stock in the market goes down, the buyer will exercise his right to sell at the strike price which will be more than the market price. But if the price of the stock is more that the strike price, the buyer of the Put option can let the option expire and can avoid losses.
Covered Short sell means you do not own the stock at the time of executing the trade but you can arrange to deliver the shares at the settlement date by borrowing them. Many long term investors have stocks kept in the demat account and they are sitting idle. Instead they can lend these shares to a covered short seller for a small fee. This is call Securities Lending and Borrowing scheme.
Example – Buy Stock : DREDGECORP ABOVE 770. SIGNAL : CHANNEL BREAK OUT WITH HIGHER VOLUME. Stop Loss : 730.
There are a few approaches to position trading like one can buy stocks that have strong trending potential. Finding a stock that has already started to trend is far easier to detect than a stock that is about the start trending. Buying a stock that is already begun trending is a less research-intensive endeavour as well.
SBIN last week had closed on gain of 1.10% (appx). The resistance for the stock is at 312 to 314 and the stock has broken this on weekly charts. If it closes higher, then it can move to 322 to 325. Support for the stock lies in the zone of 306 and if it cracks that it will fall to 300. Which was the support for December 2017. Next level of support is at 290 where the long term moving averages are lying.
(Short term i.e weekly basis – sell and long term i.e monthly basis buy recommendation)
There is some information received from the company at all times and the stock prices react with the flow of new information and changing investor expectations Most of the information is regular in nature and barely moves a stock price to make any short term gain. However, there are many events that hold the key to moving the stock price. Micro-level events to look out for can include corporate announcements like earnings for the financial year, macro-economic outlook of the company, earnings potential, mergers and acquisitions, etc. Other events which are at macro level to look out for can include political scenario and stability, natural disasters and monetary policy of the country etc (example can be seen at the option strategy for budget day).
Calculation is as below:-
Typical Price = (High + Low + Close)/3
Raw Money Flow = Typical Price x Volume
Money Flow Ratio = (14-period Positive Money Flow)/(14-period Negative Money Flow)
Money Flow Index = 100 – 100/(1 + Money Flow Ratio)
Raw Money Flow is volume multiplied with typical price. Raw Money Flow will be positive when the typical price increases the next day and Raw Money Flow will be negative when the typical price falls the next day. The Raw Money Flow must not be calculated when the typical price remains unchanged. Then we write positive money flow in one column and negative money flow in the other column. Then we take a 14 day moving sum of positive money flow and a 14 day negative money flow sum. Positive Money Flow sum is divided by the Negative Money Flow sum to create the ratio. Then, the RSI formula (found on google easily) is applied to create a volume-weighted indicator.
If the money flow index is greater than 80, the the stock is considered as an overbought stock and if the Money Flow Index is below 20, then the stock is considered as oversold. We have to only look out for stock that have a very strong trend and seem to continue that trend due to euphoria, internal or external factors. In these circumstances stock that have money flow index in excess of 80 still keep rising and stocks that have money flow index lower than 20 keep falling. So, the inventor says to look out for levels above 90 and below 10 where breaking those levels is a rare phenomenon and suggest a price move is unsustainable. Theories suggest that volume leads prices. There are three signals that we get from money flow index – unsustainable prices on overbought or oversold stocks, bullish and bearish divergence used to anticipate trend reversals and swings at 80 or 20 can also be used to identify price reversals.
Examples:
| Name | Symbol | Current Price | MFI | Over Sold days |
| Gujarat Industries Power Co. Ltd. | GIPCL | 120.35 | 14.4222 | 4 |
| Reliance Power Ltd. | RPOWER | 44 | 14.608 | 3 |
| State Trading Corporation of India Ltd. | STCINDIA | 155 | 15.9887 | 5 |
| Name | Symbol | Current Price | MFI | Over Bought days |
| Varun Beverages Ltd. | VBL | 690.7 | 88.2601 | 6 |
| Rane Madras | RML | 868.65 | 87.7261 | 6 |
There are few points that need to be kept in mind, like arbitrage trading does not mean that the stocks can be bought and sold on the same day from different exchanges. Arbitrage comes into picture only if you have higher bid price and lower offer price in either of the exchanges. Arbitrage trades should never be done manually. One should avoid spotting arbitrage in low volume stocks as the pair trade execution could get difficult in these cases.
Arbitrage is generally termed as risk free, but there could be cases where a part of the transaction fails and a sudden surge in the prices can make the trade close without a profit.
High-frequency trading became the buzzword when exchanges began incentivizing companies for promoting liquidity to the market.
The biggest advantage of high frequency trading is that it has raised the market liquidity. By forecasting the probable trends to the market, institutions practicing high frequency trading can expect a high amount of return on their trades with the help of bid-ask spread, which results in magnum profits.
It has also been criticized too on ground of replacing many brokers and dealers, as it purely depends on algorithms and mathematical formulae thereby ruling out the involvement of human decisions and logic. Also, since the decisions take place very fast they could result in some unnecessary market shift. This system helps the big companies to garner profits whereas the intermediaries, like the brokers and retail investors suffer.
Quantitative trading involves a technique where traders create a model using mathematics, and later develop a program that applies the same logic to market data. Finally after showing results, this model is then tested with historical data and then optimized. The system is implemented in real-time if and when favorable results are achieved. To better understand a technique, we can use an analogy to something we already know and this makes it easier to understand. Imagine a weather report which forecasts a 90% chance of rain. The forecast has been arrived at after analyzing climate data. A quantitative analysis shows that 90 out of 100 times in the past, when a similar pattern was observed, it did rain. The same process is applied to stocks to make trading decisions.
SL hit & Flat numbers: Deep Industries. Stock is too cheap to trade at 200.
Stock should soon retest 200 moving average of 240. Above 240, stock can rally towards 270, 300 and 330 in less than 6 months. Provided Crude Prices stays high close to 70$/barrel. SL 175 for long term hold.
Earlier call on Deep Industries:
Technical call: Enter Deep Industries 218-225. Target 270. SL 202. 1 month.
SL hit & Decent numbers. Mahanagar Gas in fresh buy zone. Share price 980. Target 1180 and 1280. 3 to 6 months. SL 880.
Earlier calls on Mahanagar Gas:
Mahanagar Gas hits target of 1250. Continue Holding. Target 1500.
Nice Margins from Mahanagar Gas (CMP 1020). Target 1250. 6 months. SL 925.
Results update: Priority Stock P4. Strong Numbers. New 52 week high likely.
Reference stock pick:
[Priority Exclusive] Stock call update post results.
Value Pick from the bullish sector. Stock to Triple your capital in 2 years
Revised SL hit. Decent numbers: Meghmani Organics. Revised Target 130. SL 86. Add on dips towards 100. 3 months.
Target is around 19-20x annualized quarterly EPS. Above 130, stock target and SL shall be revised.
Earlier calls on Meghmani:
Decent Numbers from Meghmani Organics. Confirming to target price.
Update: Meghmani Organics. Revised Target 154. SL 100. Add on dips.
Meghmani Organics hits target of 100. Continue holding for 125. SL 85.
Enter Meghmani Organics (BSE: 532865). 75-80. Target 100. SL 70. 3 months.
Decent numbers: Sanghi Ind. Share price 118. Stock to retest 52 week high of 144. Buy range: 110-118. SL 100. 3 months.
Earlier calls on Sanghi Ind:
Book profits in Sanghi Industries. Returns 40%. Add after good quarter.
Enter Sanghi Industries (BSE: 526521 Price: 101). Target 144. SL 85.
Results update on Sarda Energy. Stock to remain range bound 500-600.
Stock had posted good numbers in September Quarter with Quarterly EPS of 10.4. Stock had rallied towards 620 (15x Annualized Quarterly EPS.)
Now the stock has posted Quarterly EPS of 9.5 at 15x Annualised Quarterly EPS, Fair price is at 570. Stock price being at 546, it is advised to add only on dips towards 500. SL 460. Exit on rally towards 590-620. Any break above 610-620, stock can rally towards 720.
Results update on Wonderla Holidays. Stock to remain range bound 350-410 until next quarterly result.
Buy close to 350 and exit close to 400 for short term returns have stoploss of 330. We are positive on the stock in long term view.
Above 420 stock can move towards 500 in 9-12 months.
Results update on Priority Pick (P6). Target intact. 55% upside in 6 months.
Stock Reference:
[Priority Exclusive] This Microcap stock is trading at 50% discount Price.
Excel Industries hits target on good results. Revised target 1200. Sl 750.
Stock price 923. Add on dips towards 840-880.
Stock was recommended at 634. Returns 45+%
Earlier call:
Excel Industries almost hits target. 18% returns. Hold for Revised target.
Enter Excel Industries (BSE: 500650 CMP 634). Target 750. SL 550.
Priority Pick P-2 Trades below SL. Stock fundamentally strong to hold.
Stock is trading 10% up from the initial recommended price and has hit revised SL in the last trading session and had moved towards the initial recommended price in early trades and is up 10%. Technical reversal signal found in the technical charts.
Rain Ind Technically well placed. Share price: 332. Target 450. SL 290.
Fundamental Fair price: 450.
NOCIL ends just above SL. Revised Target & SL as Result was decent.
Stock was down 8% in trade.
Add NOCIL at CMP. Target 236. SL 171.
Stock shall retest 52 week highs in 3 months. Target is at near 22x recent quarterly EPS.
Stock is technically well placed with a good Risk to reward ratio.
We are bullish on NOCIL since long.
Earlier call on NOCIL:
Nice set of numbers from NOCIL (CMP 140). Target 168. SL 121. 3 months.
Flat Numbers: NOCIL. Hold. Target 222. SL 162. Add on dips 175-180.
Decent numbers & Technically well placed. Enter Srikalahasti Pipes at 363. SL 330.
Stock to retest 52 week highs of 446 in 3 months.
Earlier call on Srikalahasti Pipes:
Target hit. Hold Srikalahasti Pipes at 420. Target 485. SL 380. Add on dips
Enter Srikalahasthi Pipes at 300-315. Target 430. SL 285. 3 months.
Triton valves hits SL of 2200. Decent Revenues & Poor Profits due to high material cost. Exit stock until next quarter.
If you have exited at our SL have a SL of 1900 and sell on rally towards 2100-2150
Earlier calls on Triton:
Triton Values hits target. Book 50% profits. Returns: 75%. Add on dips.
Decent results from OCCL. Share price 1214. Target 1480. SL 1100. 3 months.
BSE: 506579 | NSE: OCCL. Upside: 22%
Most of the stocks are technical well placed post decent correction from the market.
Prefer recent stock recommendations wherein the stocks have posted decent results for better returns with better probability to hit targets.
Priority Stock [P-12] post strong numbers as expected. Strong upside seen.
Earlier this month, we had picked Priority Stock P12.
[Priority Pick: P12] Bet on results. upto 60% upside seen in 6 months.
The stock has posted bad numbers due to higher ‘Other Expenses’ in last quarter. Stock is trading at 55x last quarterly EPS which is almost same as the PE of its peers.
We suppose that the last quarterly results are the worst numbers it can quote and stock is technically bottoming out.
We bet on better results from this stock which has good ROE/ROCE which lower margin.