PPAP hits target. Book 50% profits. Hold remaining for Revised Target 790. SL 600. Add on dips towards 640-650, if any.
Stock was recommended at 434. Stock is currently trading at 698. Returns 60%.
Please don’t add fresh above 660.
Reference call:
Decent Numbers from PPAP Auto. BSE: 532934. Price 434. Target 550.
PPAP Auto Hits target. Book 50% profits & add on dips. Revised Target 660.
Target hit in SKF India. Book 50% profits. Add on dips towards 1850.Target 2300. 6 months. SL 1750.
Stock was recommended at 1587. Stock has moved past target of 1850 and has hit fresh highs of 1970. Stock is trading at 1930. Book 50% profits (returns 21%) and add on dips towards 1850. Revised Target 2300. 6 months. SL 1750.
Time frame and target might be changed post next quarterly results.
Reference call:
Decent Numbers: SKF India. BSE: 500472 Price 1587. Target 1850. SL 1450.
Update on Siyaram Silk. Add fresh for 20% upside in 3 months.
We had recommended Siyaram Silk at 376 (1880 before split) in May 2017 for a target of 480 (2400 before split). Later In October 2017, we had updated to hold for a revised target of 560 (2800 before split) Target was hit in 2 weeks. We had failed to update further.
Stock is now trading at 742, consolidating from its 52 week high of 799.
Results was decent and we expect stock to post decent numbers in coming quarterly resuts.
We have a target of 896. Have a SL at 690. 3 months.
On yearly point of view, any dip towards 690 can be bought for a target of 1100. SL 600.
Earlier call on Siyaram:
Update on Siyaram Silk (BSE: 503811). Continue Holding. Revised Target 2800
Microcap Pick: Buy Siyaram Silks 1880. Target 2400. SL 1650. 6 months.
Technical update on Priority Pick. Revised SL and Target for short term.
Our Priority Pick had hit short term target in 5 trading sessions. Returns 45%.
Stock has corrected and is consolidating for a while, it has been making few fresh technical supports and resistances.
Book Profits in Navin Fluorine. Target 870 hit. Returns 32%.
Add fresh on dips towards 800-820. Target 950. SL 750.
Reference call:
Flat Numbers: Navin Flourine (BSE: 532504 Price 734). Target 870. 3 months.
Fresh call: Navin Fluorine looks good at 659. Target 840. SL 590. 3 months
Enter Excel Industries (BSE: 500650 CMP 634). Target 750. SL 550. 3 months.
Add more on any dip towards 580-600.
Dwarikesh Sugar to find support at 45-47. Add above 50. Target 56. Time: 1 week after breakout. SL 47.
Risk reward ratio 1:2
Honda Seil Power shows strength near target. Hold for revised target.
Stock likely to move towards 1750. 3 months. Stoploss (SL) 1400. Current Market Price (CMP): 1530.
Fresh buy can be made near 1450 (if any).
Reference call:
Decent Numbers from Honda Siel. Share price 1321. Target 1550. 3 months.
Dalmia Bharat Sugar oversold. Stock likely to bounce towards 140-145 in short term.
Have a stop below 120. Target 160. 3 months. Stock is on selling spree for the day of its poor results last quarter.
It has been oversold and shall see bounce back.
BSE Limited Oversold below 900. Buy above 915. Target 1050. Sl 860. Time: 1 month post breakout. Add to watchlist.
Greaves Cotton (BSE: 501455) oversold below 120. Add above 120. Target 160. SL 102.
Fresh move above 120 will help the stock rally towards 140-145 in less than a month.
3 Top Cement stocks to have in your portfolio for next 3 years.
Panama Petro above 250. Book 50% profits. Add on any dips towards 225-230. Target 300. SL 200.
We have recommended Panama Petro at 140 for a target of 174, 225 , 250 and 285 before 1:2 bonus.
Revising call post bonus issue: Recommended Price: 93. Stock is trading strong above 250.
We recommend to Book 50% profits. Add on any dips towards 225-230. Target 300. SL 200.
Earlier call before bonus issue:
Panama Petro hits target of 250. Add on dips. Revised Target 285. SL 210.
Lumax hits target of 2250. Hold for a Revised Target of 2500. SL 1800. 3 months.
Lumax after hitting target has consolidated. CMP 2080.
Fresh Buy between 1900-2000. Target 2500. SL 1800.
Reference call:
Decent Numbers. Lumax Ind. BSE: 517206 Price 1755. Target 2250. SL 1450.
Most recent Priority Pick hits double upper circuit. up 30% in 2 days.
Reference call:
[Priority Exclusive] Understanding Sector leaders & Building a portfolio-2
Prakash Industries Breaks strong above 150. Target 210 Intact. SL 140.
Fresh Buy can be done closer to 150-155. CMP 166. BSE: 506022.
Earlier call on Prakash:
Decent Numbers: Prakash Ind. BSE: 506022. Price 140. Revised target 210.
Re-enter Prakash Ind (BSE: 506022) at 117. Target 156. SL 99. 3 months.
Book Profits in Sundram Fastners between 580-600. Target almost hit. Returns 100%.
Reference call:
Flat Numbers from Sundram Fastners. Target 580 intact. Hold.
Sundram Fasteners near our target of 510. Hold for 580. Add fresh on dips.
Decent numbers from Sundram Fasteners. Revised Target 510. SL 370.
Strong topline: Buy Sundram Fastners on dips towards 390. Target 460. SL370
Fresh move in Gujarat Alkalies. CMP 740. Target 950. SL 650. 3 months. Buy now and Add in the range 700-725.
Earlier call on Gujrat Alkalies:
Guj Alkali hits target of 520. Hold until technical weakness. Profit 30%.
Balkrishna Ind hits target of 2500. Book 50% profits. Add on dips towards 2350. SL 2250. Revised Target 2750.
Reference call:
Balkrishna Ind hits target of 2200. Hold & add on dips towards 1950-2000.
Balkrishna Ind post good numbers. Continue holding in Portfolio.
Force Motors oversold below 3000. Buy Above 3100. Target 3750. 6 months. Have a stop below 2800.
Fresh Lifetime high for NRB Bearings. (BSE: 530367; CMP 157). Target 200. 3 months. SL 135. Add on dips towards 145-150.
Strong Quarterly results from the company. Stock is trading at Trailing PE of 28 while Industrial PE is at 40. Price to book is fair, while profitability ratio and valuation ratio is good enough.
Stock has posted Quarterly EPS closer to 2.12. We have a target of 23 times annualized quarterly EPS = 200. SL 135.
Technically stock likely to correct towards 150 and 145, where stock can be added.
Earlier in our Priority Exclusive article ‘[Priority Exclusive] Understanding Sector leaders and Building a portfolio.’
We had stated that
There is a common Myth in the stock market that the bigger know brands with larger Market Capital are the sector leaders and most of the retail investors build a portfolio with such stocks such as MRF, TCS, Infosys, Bata, HUL, SBI, ICICI Bank, etc. I am not here to say it’s wrong. I am here to say it can be done better. There are lots of smaller stocks in the sector with better fundamentals and better future outlook, there are stocks in which the management is so good that they care about investors.
Stocks with Better Margins and Growth in the sector are the best bets.
I will try to explain it today with an example from Tyre Space.
and did you know that the stock has Risen 53% in less than 2 months from the date of article.
Today we have a different stock from a different sector that is the industrial leader with Better Margins and Growth. But did you know that the stock is trading at an discount of 25-50% of its peers. On Maintaining decent results the stock can double your capital in less than 12 months and can be a potential 8 bagger in next 5 to 6 years.
Comment if you find a less known industrial leader in any other sector.
Technical Call: Enter NBCC (India) at 250. Target 300. Sl 220. 3 months.
Stock is bottoming out technically after hitting new 52 week high of 291.
Stock likely to bounce towards 270 in short term have a stop at 238. 2-3 weeks.
In Medium term stock is likely to hit fresh 52 week high move forward.
Cyient to retest lifetime highs of 640. Add in the range 520-550. SL 500. 3 months.
BSE: 532175
Stock has posted decent results and has consolidated 10% from its recent highs, It’s nice time to accumulate the stock.
We have a target of 750 in 1 year.
[Priority Pick update] Microcap steel stock hits upper circuit post strong quarterly numbers. Up 111% from recommended Price. Target revised to 300% from 200% in 2 years.
Reference call:
[Priority Exclusive] This Micro cap Steel stock can Triple your capital in less than 2 years.
Enter Grauer & Weil between 64-70. Target 88. SL 60. 6 months.
BOM: 505710.
Ruchitra Papers hits target. To remain one of the top pick in Papers. Continue holding.
We like stocks like Star paper, Kautham Papers, West Coast Papers, NR Agarwal and Ruchitra Papers in Paper sector.
Seem like an good sector outlook has given re-rating on Industrial PE of Paper stocks. Industrial PE to remain in the range of 13-15.
Ruchitra Papers can be held in your portfolio for a target of 250 in 6 months. SL 155. Add on dips towards 180.
Current momentum to lift the stock towards 220 and 230 in a month.
Reference call:
Decent Numbers from Ruchitra Papers (CMP 156). Target 185. Add on dips.
[Priority Pick] Auto Ancillary stock with Good fundamentals has 65% upside in a year.
What’s this Ichimoku technique people are talking about nowadays?
Ichimoku Technique is a kind of candle stick indicator that helps in finding future support, trend change, short term support, medium term support, pullback and breakout.
There are few indicators in the charts whose names are confusing and the way they are formed are not much important if you have the indicator and understand what they signify. You will break your head understanding it for long hours and even days.
I will try to explain Ichimoku technique in less than 15 mins with example.
The below chart is Latest NIFTY 15 mins chart (15 mins chart for Short term traders) It has Ichimoku Indicator overlayed on it.
There are 3 lines and a cloud in Ichimoku system:
You can see in the above charts, a Cloud twist, Greenline breakout and Candle stick breakout from the cloud aroud 10110. NIFTY has rallied 150 points from then. (Breakouts are indicated in Light Green color.)
Example 2:
Adding an example to Breakdown Happening in NIFTY at 10350 on 29th November 2017. NIFTY has corrected 300 points after the breakdown.
Note: All the lines and clouds are formed based on some formula of averages of highs and lows of last few candles.
I personally use Tradingview for technical charts. (It’s free for End of Day analysis.)
Above charts are from Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView with Ichimoku indicator layed on 15 mins charts of NIFTY.
To learn the depth of Ichimoku lines and cloud, you can always buy this book from Amazon.How to Make Money Trading the Ichimoku System.
Both the above links are affiliated.
Please share and comments your thoughts.
Nice Numbers from Shree Pushkar. Buy in the range 255-270. Target 330. SL 240.
BSE: 539334
Priority Picks are no different from free stock calls. Free stock calls are given on the basis of hidden value in the quarterly results. Stocks are checked for Good fundamentals and technical to ensure quality investment. Free stock calls can given 20-30% returns until next quarterly results.
In Priority calls since the time frame is 8 quarters, we adjust our fundamental priorities and technical indicators. We look for buy zone where investors can add more shares due to any market dip or any temporary financial under-performance in 1 or 2 quarters out of 8 quarters. The SL is shifted little below to allow an accumulation zone. The said target price of 200% in 8 quarters will require 4-5 really good quarters.
We strongly believe that the risk reward ratio is the most important factor in making good returns in the stock market. We advise our priority members to kindly wait for a new call once the stock has rallied above 20-25%, even if the target remains intact, the initial 20-40% rally is the real safety factor that will protect investors in a long run.
We also recommend our Priority Members to buy all our Priority calls and at equiv-weight ratio.
Decent Numbers: Lakshmi Electrical (BSE: 504258 Price: 745). Target 880. 3 months. SL 680. Dips between 700-720 can be added.
We had recommended Lakshmi Electrical Control System at 670 for a target of 800. Stock has made fresh 52 week high of 799. Stock is consolidating and is likely to continue its uptrend once the market start moving up.
Earlier call:
Good numbers from Lakshmi Electrical (CMP 670). Target 800. 3 month.
Technical analysis is the process of predicting the future movement of stock prices based on the study of past stock price movements. These predictions are not absolute but can help investors foresee what may happen to stock values over a given period of time. There are a great many charting systems in use to conduct technical analysis on market movement and trends.
Image Credit: Pexels
One form of charting is known as Japanese candlestick charts and these types of charts are versatile enough to be used in long-range forecasting or day trading scenarios. The real power of candlestick charts is in their ability to accurately show market turning points and when used correctly market risk exposure is dramatically reduced.
Image Credit: pixabay
Candlestick charts, so called because of their resemblance to candles have been in use and perfected in the Far East for generations. These types of charts are now used worldwide by all kinds of investors from day traders to premium financial institutions.
Candlestick charts are very easy to interpret and understand. Seasoned traders right down to new investors can easily read and understand the information in a candlestick chart.
These charts can also indicate earlier market turning points, therefore allowing the investor to enter or exit the market with more accurate timing. Western tools for charting price movement will only show trends, but combining western and eastern methods will give you both these benefits. Unique insights in the market can be read from these charts by showing the force that is supporting the movement of the trend, unlike bar charts that only show the trend.
Image Credit: pixabay
The thickest section of the candlestick is called the real body. It shows the range between the open and closing price of the stock. The real body can be one of two colors, usually black and white. If the opening price is higher at closing than the closing price the real body will be black and if the closing price is higher than the opening price it will be white.
The length of the real body also factors in the analysis of candlestick charts. If the real body is long and white it shows at a glance that it is a bull market. If the real body is long and black it shows a bear market. A short real body, white or black, shows that the market’s trend may be losing its momentum. If the real body shortens to a single line, this is known as a Doji, which just means that the open and close are the same and therefore nobody.
The small tails protruding from each end of the real body, commonly known as wicks, are called shadows. The highest point of the upper shadow denotes the high of the period and likewise, the lowest point of the lower shadow shows the low of the period.
When using candlestick charts you can employ western or eastern techniques, or combine the two for an effective forecasting tool that will assist in increasing profits and decreasing risk. A Japanese proverb states “His potential is that of the fully drawn bow – His timing the release of the trigger.” Candlestick charts are one method that can be used to factor that “timing” in making the correct decisions when trading on the financial markets.
My two favorite Books on Candlestick charts are (Linked to http://amazon.in)
What are options and their types?
Options are a kind of a derivative security. The price of an option is related to the price of something. Strictly speaking options are contracts which end up giving you the right but does not give the obligation to buy or sell an asset that is underlying at a fixed price, on a specified date.
Options are widely acclaimed for being a highly versatile security. Options are often being used to forecast and speculate the market which can be risky at times. Hedgers take into account options and wisely use them to minimize the risk of holding back an asset.
Options are different from futures contract and forward contracts. Forward contracts are non-standard contract between two parties to buy / sell a particle asset at a predetermined price and a predetermined date. Futures contracts are standard contract available on a stock exchange between two parties to buy / sell a particle asset at a predetermined price and a predetermined date.
But an option is something like a futures contract but in options the buyer gets the right and not the obligation to buy / sell for a predetermined at a predetermined date for a price called premium. Graphically speaking following is the difference.
Here we have the payoff (profit / loss) on the Y axis and the price of the asset or stock on the x axis. If we look at Fig – 2, this is the payoff matrix for a futures contract. The stock was bought at Rs 90 and if the price falls to Rs 80 the buyer suffers a loss of Rs 10 and if the price moves up to Rs 100, the buyer makes a gain of Rs 10. But if we see Fig- 1 the loss is curtailed to Rs 0 and the profits are unlimited. Puzzled – ok, now since it has peaked your interest, let’s learn the types of options to fully understand the graph. There are two types of options – call option and a put option. These are the terminologies that one needs to be conversant with to understand options
Strike price – The price at which option holder exercises his right.
Exercise price – Price at which the buyer of an option buys/ sells.
Assignment – Price which the seller of an option has to buy / sell
Expiration – end of the validity of the contract
CALL OPTION
A Call option give a person the option to buy the options at certain price. So, a person will buy a call option when he thinks that the price will go up. Here if the price of the stock in the market goes up, the buyer will exercise his right to buy at the strike price which will be less than the market price and then sell the stock in the market price and earn profit. But if the price of the stock is less that the strike price, the buyer of the option can let the option expire and can avoid losses. This is the reason for the graph we saw in FIg- 1 has no payoff line in the loss column. On the other hand the seller of the call option has the obligation and not the right so he believes that the underlying stock’s price will drop and the buyer will not exercise the option and he earns the premium amount.
Put Option
Put options gives the person the option to sell at a certain price. So if the person is bearish and thinks that the stock will fall then he will buy a put option. Here if the price of the stock in the market goes down, the buyer will exercise his right to sell at the strike price which will be more than the market price. But if the price of the stock is more that the strike price, the buyer of the Put option can let the option expire and can avoid losses.
What is Algorithm? And what is Trading?
To understand Algorithmic trading we first need to understand what is an Algorithm. Algorithm is a specified and predefined set of instructions that are formulated and fed into the computer system to carry out the desired activity aiming at a specified outcome. Trading means buying and selling of securities.
Algo trading can alternatively be also termed as automated trading system. Algorithmic trading is a process of placing an order of large size which gets executed with the help of trading instructions set by a software program which takes into consideration variables like – time, price, news dissemination and capacity or volume. The widely known “algos” comprise variables like “percentage of volume”, “pegged “, “Volume Weighted Average Price”, “Time Weighted Average Price”, “ implementation shortfall”, “Target Close”. On the basis of these parameters they can send small bits of the bulk order over a specific span of time to the market. This entire system is automated and does not require constant monitoring of the market and the positions of the concerned stocks in the portfolio. Additionally there is no requirement of manually sending out orders to the market in piece meal basis.
High-frequency trading (HFT)
High-frequency trading (HFT) is one kind of algorithmic trading which include high speeds, high order-to-trade ratios (No of orders placed in the trading system to the No. of trades executed and matched in the trading system), high-frequency, sophisticated algorithms, co-location (Stock brokers can co-locate their ALGO IT infrastructure at the exchange premise which is closer to the exchange servers used for trade matching) and very short-term investment horizons.
If we see a few years back, the concept of algo trading had started gaining momentum from both retail traders and institutional traders. The popular medium for algo trading are- MetaTrader, NinjaTrader, IQBroker, and Quantopian.
Algorithmic trading has been developed with the aim not only to make the profitable trading but with the intention to curb on the cost component, to minimize the market impact and to minimize the risk that is involved in execution of an order. The system is very popular amongst banks, pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds.
Algorithmic trading, often referred as black box trading, the system largely depends on critical mathematical calculations based on formulae and very efficient computer programs that are tuned to calculate and crunch such complex numbers. Some strategies that the Algo traders use are pairs trading, Arbitrage, scalping and Trading ahead of index fund re-balancing.
In simple words we can conclude that Algorithmic trading is the means to utilize computer based programs to undergo and follow a pre-defined set of manual of instructions for carrying out a trading activity in order to churn out profits with the speed, accuracy and proficiency that is not merely possible and feasible for human traders to perform. The biggest advantage of Algo trading is that it makes the market very easy and flexible to comprehend, renders a practical approach by avoiding emotional and biased impacts on the trading decisions, it is an objective method that is being followed.
Decent numbers from MM Forgings. Add in the range 880-920. Target 1150. SL 780. 3 months.
Answer: I personally use Tradingview. Its free!
Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView
Free account Features:
You also get 30 days free trail for real time charts. Paid account is really worth it for the clean interface, community, notifications and support.
Margin traders, F&O traders and FX traders could gain the most out of the paid account.
Long term investors can be happy with free account and dont miss to enjoy the 30 day free trail of Paid service.
Please share and comment on how you do your technical analysis?
Why is the Indian stock market racing like mad when all economists are predicting bleak economic figures?
Answer:
Racing like mad?
Its just up 18% in one year.
Market scenario is not the way it was 10 years ago. As i always say, there are 2 important numbers that are important to define a stock price. One is EPS and the other is PE ratio.
EPS is a know factor. It is derived from the Quarterly results.
On the other hand PE ratio is the real value of a stock. It is the price which investors are ready to buy a stock. PE ratio can rally due to good market Outlook, liquidity, stable government, good monsoon, etc.
Current rally in the market is supported by good liquidity, 5-10 years back whenever there used to be a bad news domestically or globally, the FII used to sell in the market and the market used to keep hitting monthly lows. Currently the flow of money from Indian household into mutual funds has increased well. This fund is supporting the Market on the downside.
This liquidity is helping the market to stay above the resistances and will also keep helping the market hit fresh highs every 3 months once for next 3 to 4 years atleast.
This is screenshot from Stockedge APP on FII selling:
But the market will keep hitting fresh highs due to this picture below:
(Support from DII)
Please share and comment your thoughts on the Indian stock market.
Answer: Are you buying a stock and looking for a target and stoploss? It should be the other way round.
You should not invest in a stock just because you know the stock or just because its a largr cap and keep doing risk management on it.
Fundamentally check for its PE ratio, PB, Profitability ratio, valuations and understand how it is placed among peers. If it is cheaper by 30-40% to its peers and has good profitability ratio, it will soon attract investors.
Example:
Step 1: Balaji Amines looks cheap near 330. Target 380. SL 300. 3 months. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Step 2: Balaji Amines hits target of 380. Continue holding. Revised target 420. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Step 3: Balaji Amines hits target of 420. Hold & add on dips. Target 560. 3 months. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Step 4: Strong numbers: Balaji Amines. Price 515. Revised Target 720. SL 430. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Current Price of Balaji Amine: 620. Returns 87%.
Example 2:
Step 1: Enter Srikalahasthi Pipes at 300-315. Target 430. SL 285. 3 months. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Step 2: Target hit. Hold Srikalahasti Pipes at 420. Target 485. SL 380. Add on dips | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Returns: 35%. Upside potential 20%.
Please upvote and share.
Answer: Always try to keep things simple.
Lets find a target price for a stock until next quarterly results.
We all know that Trailing PE ratio= Market Price/ Sum of Last four quarters EPS
To find the target price,
Target price= Annualized latest Quarter EPS × Average PE ratio of the stock
Or
Annualized latest Quarterly EPS x Industrial Average PE.
The above formula is valid for a good health company with good growth, Profitability ratio and decent valuation ratio.
Let’s take example of Bata India.
Bata India Posted EPS of 2.9 in Dec quarter.
Target price= 2.9 ×4 ×48 = ~ 560.
Stock was trading below 500 in December, stock had moved past 545 in March 2018.
The stock posted EPS of 4.4 in Q2 2017.
Target price= 4.4 ×4 ×48= ~ 844.
Stock was trading around 585 in August 2017, it had moved above 800 in oct-Nov 2018.
The stock posted EPS of 3.34 the recent quarter and the target price is 3.34 x4 x48= ~ 640.
It doesnt mean the stock should rally from 500 to 545 then to 840 then fall back to 640, this gives us a confidence to hold or exit a stock. It gives us the range in which a stock can trade in next 90 days.
Once the recent results was posted by Bata, we had updated Decent results. Book profits in Bata India. Stock likely dip towards 725-740. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Stock was trading at 780 and currently the stock is at 728.
If you see good results coming in an good economy, you can buy good stocks on bad results. Suppose you see Bata posting good numbers in coming 3-4 quarters. Bata can oost 5 or 5.5 EPS then forward target price is
Future target price= 5 x4 x48= 960.
So any dips towards 680 can be bought with a sl of 620 for a target of 960 in 9 to 12 months.
Reference calls:
Bata India up 24% from Recommended Price. Hold for revised target of 840. | Gale.in, Stock Blog
Please share and comment below on how you go through the fundamentals.
